Significant developments in the Nepal

This Opinion explains the present political situation in Nepal

–Written by Rakesh Sood, the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation till May 2014, is a former Ambassador to Nepal

Summary of the opinion :

1. Nepal Prime Minister K.P. Oli telephoned Mr. Modi on New Year’s Eve to convey his greetings for 2016 and informed him about his government’s plans to move forward with the three-point package while undertaking negotiations with the agitating Madhesi leaders of the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM).

2. The first sign of change came on December 21 following the decisions taken by the Nepali cabinet to address the demands of the SLMM.

3.The three-point package consists of constitutional amendments on participation in the state organs on the basis of “proportionate inclusiveness” and delineation of electoral constituencies on the basis of population.

4. other demands — including those pertaining to “citizenship” — are to be resolved through negotiation and appropriate notification.

5. The formal Indian statement has been followed by aninformal easing of supplies, particularly fuel and LPG, by using border-crossing points other than the Raxaul-Birgunj crossing which remains blocked.

6.Nepal’s monthly imports were usually in the order of NPR 7 billion; these went down to NPR 1.5 billion during October-November but have picked up again and could reach NPR 4.5 billion during December-January.

7. This would imply that more than 50 per cent of the fuel supplies are now going through legally.

8. The SLMM rejected the Oli government’s three-point package as “inadequate” and declared that it fell far short of their 11-point charter of demands.

What were the demands before?

Demarcation of provinces which related to five districts.
Restoring population as the primary criteria for electoral constituency delimitation.
Proportional representation in government jobs.
Issues relating to citizenship.

What are the present demands ?

Democratization of the army and other security agencies.
Restructuring of the judiciary
Declaring Nepal a multi-national state
Equal status to other languages like Hindi and Bhojpuri
A reference to the principle of “proportional representation” in the section on Fundamental Rights
The establishment of a constitutionally empowered Inclusion Commission

9.On December 26, Mr. Mahato decided to do a dharna at the Jogbani-Biratnagar crossing where truck movement had picked up and was badly beaten up by the Nepal police.

10.Sensing an opportunity, the Oli government reached out to the SLMM leadership for a meeting in Kathmandu on January 3.

11. Later ,the Oli government had set the wheels in motion for the constitutional amendment process by formally tabling it in the Assembly.

12. There was much fanfare about China supplying 1,000 metric tonnes of petroleum products to alleviate the shortage.

13.The annual requirement is closer to a million tonnes, this is a tiny amount.

14. Nepal’s attempts at negotiating long-term agreements with China have not gone very far.

15. Given the strain Mr. Modi’s “neighbourhood first” policy is under on the Pakistan front, it is understandable that he would like Mr. Oli to stick to tradition.

16.The fact is that nobody thought that the Madhesi agitation and the consequent restrictions on cross-border movement of goods would last this long. As a result, nobody had a Plan B and rhetoric replaced communication.

17.The supply situation has now eased but the Oli government needs to offer a healing hand to the Madhesis to get them on board.

18.If he fails, he may find it difficult to deal with the ensuing instability. The Madhesis need to reach out to the Tharus and Janajatis, the other marginalised groups.

19.For India, the challenge is to give greater political content to its engagement, rebuild trust with the Oli government, and revive the positive sentiments generated by Prime Minister Modi’s visits in 2014.

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